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The Harley State


BamaRider

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A article out of a business news feed came across my page yesterday, talking about the troubles at HD.

 

Sales down almost 10% from year ago, and the new 88 motor not generating much buzz. Their market share under 50% for the first time in who knows when. These were business guys and knew nothing about motorcycles or what could be wrong at HD, so they had no solutions, and were backing off any investment going that way.

 

I suggest numbers are down because millennials are not impressed with a HD, and us baby boomers, maybe have one more bike left in us before we trade for a golf cart, HD and much of the industry have to plot a way forward.

 

Honda et all know this, thus the recent input of starter bikes out of Asia. (CB 550). Look, the "wasp looking" bikes are not me, but millennials seem to like that sort of stuff, so you gotta compete for them. Hope to snag a few, and maybe keep them around for 50 years. (me).

 

I dunno what HD is going to do. If they sit around and wait for them to decide to become "real" motorcyclists and buy into the HD brand, and all that goes with it, might be too late. They are so invested into that, it might need something drastic.

 

I understand they make a entry level bike, but in the end it is a V twin, and looks like a HD, and I don't see millennials buying it, with all those cheaper, high tech, wasp bikes out there to choose from.

 

The gen X guys, along a good portion of the baby boomers have gone the dual sport route. A few years ago, no one knew how the sport tourer, ADV market would shake down. Outside of BMW and Yamaha, most treat the sport tourer as after thought, so that decision has been decided. Honda makes 3 dual sport bikes, and dropped the ST. There ya go.

 

I waiting to see how HD fixes their problem with millennials, because I'd never sell them short on their marketing prowess.

 

I hope we don't go extinct before I land one of those new wetheads.

 

 

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John Bentall

The huge assumption being made here is that the alternative to the HD is "wasp" bikes.

 

The alternative to HD for the millenials might be to gaze lovingly at their tablet phones doing social networking or whatever else.

 

HD has many different avenues of competition and needs to make motorcycling more exciting and enchanting than an iPad. Mounting the old "iron horse" just doesn't cut it anymore on its own.

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The huge assumption being made here is that the alternative to the HD is "wasp" bikes.

 

The alternative to HD for the millenials might be to gaze lovingly at their tablet phones doing social networking or whatever else.

 

HD has many different avenues of competition and needs to make motorcycling more exciting and enchanting than an iPad. Mounting the old "iron horse" just doesn't cut it anymore on its own.

 

Or buying RnineT's of one flavor or another. :grin:

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fourteenfour
The huge assumption being made here is that the alternative to the HD is "wasp" bikes.

 

The alternative to HD for the millenials might be to gaze lovingly at their tablet phones doing social networking or whatever else.

 

HD has many different avenues of competition and needs to make motorcycling more exciting and enchanting than an iPad. Mounting the old "iron horse" just doesn't cut it anymore on its own.

 

Or buying RnineT's of one flavor or another. :grin:

 

R9T RT please. Not the big fairing the current one has, something from with a bit more protection than a F800

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I always thought shutting down the Buell line was a mistake. I'd like to see them resurrect that, with some different engine configurations. Like BMW did with the F or K series.... I might look twice at a Buell dual sport single. But what do I know?

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fourteenfour

Owned a R9T, perhaps bring back the R100RS fairing, something that provides protection just don't need the speakers/etc/etc

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The big issue as I see it is cost. Back when I got into motorcycles you could actually buy and ride a motorcycle for less per mile, and with a lower threshold of entry, than you could a car. During the 1990's and 2000's the motorcycle industry decided to concentrate on performance with less concern toward MSRP. All the while, the car industry was managing costs through automation, globalization, and platform standardization. Now, the choice seems to be between a Yamaha R-1 with MotoGP inspired traction control and an economy car with a/c, ABS, and good MPG, or no car at all; communicate with friend on social media and use Uber or transit when you need to physically go somewhere.

 

I'm old enough to remember being told not to buy a piece of 'Japanese cr@p' when I was looking for my first bike. I think the current OEM's ignore China's first forays into the market at their peril. Here's why: if you go over to the University of MN campus in Minneapolis you'll see a huge number of cheap, Chinese scooters being ridden around. The current generation of college kids might not view Chinese motorcycles with the stigma that today's riders do, and might (when they get established) be willing to buy a modestly priced motorcycle from China. Which could push those factories to improve their productions and make better, cheaper machines. Or not. My suspicion is that if HD doesn't find a way to lower their production costs they'll need to be bought out by some younger investors who know how to appeal to millennial buyers.

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Joe Frickin' Friday
Back when I got into motorcycles you could actually buy and ride a motorcycle for less per mile, and with a lower threshold of entry, than you could a car.

 

I think that's still true. The Ninja 300 is currently selling new for $5,000; HD's 750 is selling for $7,600. Fit either one with touring tires, and I think your per-mile cost is going to beat an entry level car.

 

For the Ninja:

Miles per year	15000

Insurance per year	$250 
insurance cost per mile	$0.017


purchase cost	$5,000.00
selling cost	$2,000.00
duration	5
cost per mile	$0.040

Tire cost	$240.00
Tire life	12000
Tire cost per mile	$0.020

MPG	60
gas price	$3.10 
fuel cost per mile:	$0.052

Oil change interval:	6000
Oil change cost:	$40 
oil cost per mile:	$0.007

Gear	$1,000.00 
Gear life	60000
Gear cost per mile	$0.017


Ninja total cost per mile:	$0.152

 

For a Honda Fit:

Miles per year	15000

Insurance per year	$400 
insurance cost per mile	$0.027


purchase cost	$16,000.00
selling cost	$5,000.00
duration	5
cost per mile	$0.147

Tire cost	$200.00
Tire life	35000
Tire cost per mile	$0.006

MPG	35
gas price	$3.00 
fuel cost per mile:	$0.086

Oil change interval:	6000
Oil change cost:	$30 
oil cost per mile:	$0.005



Honda Fit total cost per mile:	$0.270

 

 

 

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Dennis Andress

On nice weekend days there is an almost continuous stream of Harleys parading along the Puget Sound. They seem to ride a ferry from Seattle, go for a cruise, and then go back home. Most of the riders are young enough to continue doing that for another 10-15 years.

 

So, there is a demand for loud and shinny things. Maybe the market for new ones is just saturated.

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Lone_RT_rider
I think that's still true. The Ninja 300 is currently selling new for $5,000; HD's 750 is selling for $7,600.

 

The HD 500 Street is selling for somewhere in the middle of that at $6,899.00

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Joe Frickin' Friday
The HD 500 Street is selling for somewhere in the middle of that at $6,899.00

 

Whoops, missed that one on their website, thanks. More than a Ninja, but still much cheaper than a car.

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Lone_RT_rider
The HD 500 Street is selling for somewhere in the middle of that at $6,899.00

 

Whoops, missed that one on their website, thanks. More than a Ninja, but still much cheaper than a car.

 

I just spent 4 hours on one this morning taking a class. I can vouch that it's a decent bike for the money.

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So it's generally agreed HD has a problem with millennials?

 

Millennials have a problem with Millennials.

 

:grin:

I think the industry will have a problem with Millennials. I just don't see that generation riding bikes. It will be a mad scramble for the remaining market share.

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... Maybe the market for new ones is just saturated.

 

The used Harley supply is enormous so Harley's up against its own bikes. There are so many low-mileage HDs out there it seems the original owners tired of them quickly or just didn't have time for cruising, or they turned out not to be the chick magnets they thought they'd be...?

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Dave_zoom_zoom
Owned a R9T, perhaps bring back the R100RS fairing, something that provides protection just don't need the speakers/etc/etc

 

 

R100RS! YES, YES, and YES!!!!

 

I've owned 2 of them and would buy another that had the same old R100RS fairing with all the current engine, suspension improvements in a heartbeat. :clap:

 

Dave

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So it's generally agreed HD has a problem with millennials?

 

Millennials have a problem with Millennials.

 

:grin:

I think the industry will have a problem with Millennials. I just don't see that generation riding bikes. It will be a mad scramble for the remaining market share.

 

Maybe not. Do the environmental friendly angle. Has better mileage, less resources used to make, etc. Integrate Google glass into the helmet so they can maintain their connection addiction and voila your into that demographic :wave:

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This is one of the most difficult marketing problems I have ever encountered - a company which is handcuffed to the past by an orthodox customer base, and the last young customer walking into the showroom about 20 years ago. The last time we saw this was Cadillac circa 1969. And we all know what happened after that.

 

The latest reports say HD is killing off the V-Rod platform, too. After 17 years. So basically they're doubling down on the boomer-centric design that has a questionable appeal to anyone that's not deep into AARP territory. Time will tell, but it's not an easy problem, nor are there any easy solutions to it.

 

-MKL

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So it's generally agreed HD has a problem with millennials?

 

Millennials have a problem with Millennials.

 

:grin:

I think the industry will have a problem with Millennials. I just don't see that generation riding bikes. It will be a mad scramble for the remaining market share.

 

Maybe not. Do the environmental friendly angle. Has better mileage, less resources used to make, etc. Integrate Google glass into the helmet so they can maintain their connection addiction and voila your into that demographic :wave:

 

Except that in most cases, convenience trumps environmentally friendly all day long.

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Dennis Andress
This is one of the most difficult marketing problems I have ever encountered - a company which is handcuffed to the past by an orthodox customer base, and the last young customer walking into the showroom about 20 years ago. The last time we saw this was Cadillac circa 1969. And we all know what happened after that.

 

The latest reports say HD is killing off the V-Rod platform, too. After 17 years. So basically they're doubling down on the boomer-centric design that has a questionable appeal to anyone that's not deep into AARP territory. Time will tell, but it's not an easy problem, nor are there any easy solutions to it.

 

-MKL

 

Harley's strong suite is marketing, and style. Of all the manufactures I would expect them to be the first to successfully market something new and exciting to a younger generation. Maybe one younger than Millennials.

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So who is gaining the market share HD is losing?

 

BMW sales, a drop in the market bucket, continue to increase year after year.

 

Would love to see some stats from 2016 on sales.

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So who is gaining the market share HD is losing?

 

BMW sales, a drop in the market bucket, continue to increase year after year.

 

Would love to see some stats from 2016 on sales.

 

going to have to say their loss is spread across many brands. To me their problem is similar to BMW's problem, their bikes are up in the high side for engine size. BMW has that cool looking G310R coming but they like Harley have little if anything under 10k. The electric scooter may attract some riders too and it is coming to the US now

 

For HD the Street brand isn't all that exciting, they really need to bring the styling from the new Softtails to the Street line. Indian, while I like the idea of another big twin competitor I don't trust their parent company.

 

The Japanese brands certainly cover the range quite well, they have sizes from 250/300 all the way to 1800+.

 

The real danger to HD isn't losing market share, its the losses from failed loans that pile up.

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The huge assumption being made here is that the alternative to the HD is "wasp" bikes.

 

The alternative to HD for the millenials might be to gaze lovingly at their tablet phones doing social networking or whatever else.

 

Or kayaking, or stand-up paddleboarding, or mountain biking, or skateboarding, or going to festivals, or, or, or. They seem to be into things that don't use much gasoline.

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I always thought shutting down the Buell line was a mistake. I'd like to see them resurrect that, with some different engine configurations. Like BMW did with the F or K series.... I might look twice at a Buell dual sport single. But what do I know?

 

Buells had their issues, but IMHO, the biggest problem with Buell was that they were sold at H-D dealers. As others have mentioned, the H-D brand has a very strong image that's tied to nostalgia and brand loyalty. And that goes right down to the people working in the dealerships, in my admittedly limited experience (I did have a Road King for 10,000 miles). It never occurred to most people looking for other kinds of bikes to look for them in an H-D dealership, and they wouldn't have felt comfortable there if they did. And the people in the dealership weren't very interested in dealing with people that weren't interested in their tradition, and really had no idea how to sell a Buell.

 

And that is Harley's problem. To break out of that, they'll have to start (or buy) another brand with a separate dealer network.

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As someone noted a few posts back. HD is in a catch 22. They are heavy into their tradition. A concept most millennials care less about. But they have run out of boomers who can/will buy their bikes. So what now? Their bikes have 0 appeal to 99% of most millennials.

 

I don't have the answer.

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What ever to project Live Wire? A clear attempt to leapfrog into a future free of the past genre. Seemed like something pretty cool and styling is not tied to their legacy. The site is active and have a jobs page. Maybe trying to lure a few folks from Johnson Controls, or Rockwell here in town to take a leap of faith... Might work if they don't run into Erik Buell

 

Might even get some traditionalist if they add a kilowatt of audio power and tie in samples of their gas powered V twin synched to the rheostat (throttle) :rofl:

 

Harley-Davidson-Livewire-Statics-026.jpg

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there were rumors back on July 27th of a partnership with Tesla. Livewire hasn't had a real update since 2014 or so. It had a sixty odd mile range which would be wholly unacceptable so perhaps they decided to see what Tesla could offer them.

 

On closer inspection the Livewire previewed the new Softtails in suspension treatment, even the headlamp and turn signals now appear in the regular lineup

Edited by CommuterChris
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Their bikes have 0 appeal to 99% of most millennials.

And myself as a one percenter of the Mid-West Baby Boomers, as I value a contemporary performance envelope. Cruiser style just isn't me as well.

 

I am a BIG fan of the V-Rod motor's performance. I just wish it was an engineering generation newer in a lighter more compact package for a sport/touring mission profile. Too bad it has been dropped instead of developed into what I just said! :cry:

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Dennis Andress

I'd like to see Harley do something like the R9T, or R1100S. A 100-120 HP, lightweight, v-twin that's comfortable enough to ride all day. An engine like what Indian has in the Scout, in a sport-touring chassis would be good place to start.

 

(Sorry about the big picture ^ That caught me by surprise)

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Harley Davidson will NEVER compete with anyone not in the big twin style cruiser market.

 

Say what you want, good or bad, but they ( meaning the Motor Company and dealer network ) are not geared to selling ANYTHING beyond lifestyle. While there are some good things about the newer bikes, they are not really doing anything better than they did 10 years ago. Stuck in a rut. Which is ok as long as the market is there. When the market shrinks and profit margins shrink more, there goes the one really outstanding thing about Harley Davidson. The awesome Dealer network!

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Dennis Andress

I'd forgotten about their Lifestyle thing. I remember watching a couple walk into a Harley dealership, he goes one way to look at shinny things, and she goes the other to look at clothes.

 

Yeah, they do have a hard row to hoe...

 

(Personally, every time a loud Harley hurts my ears I wish they hadn't survived the Great Recession.)

Edited by Dennis Andress
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I'd like to see Harley do something like the R9T, or R1100S. A 100-120 HP, lightweight, v-twin that's comfortable enough to ride all day. An engine like what Indian has in the Scout, in a sport-touring chassis would be good place to start.

 

(Sorry about the big picture ^ That caught me by surprise)

 

well many in the Harley world were hoping for something to come out of the trademarking of the Sport Glide name. that may be next year if they are lucky.

 

with regards to what millennials are buying, less than three percent of adults ride.

Edited by CommuterChris
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I just don't see as much interest in any kind of vehicles in younger generations. When I was 16, everyone wanted to drive. I got a motorbike when I was 13 and a car when I was 15. I had the car before I could get a license to drive it. I spent a year working on it in the garage. Neither of my kids had that kind of interest in cars. My daughter doesn't even own a car although she had a Puch motorbike for awhile. And for my son a car is just a needed appliance like a toaster. My grandson didn't even get a driver's license until he was about 20 years old.

 

If motorcycle companies are really looking to the future they should probably branch out into other lines of business. Sad to say that, but that is what it looks like to me.

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Got to agree, every time I get behind an HD I get treated to the obnoxious racket as well as the stench of unburned hydrocarbons.

 

Maybe the future will also see fewer motor homes clogging the roads due to lack of interest by millennials, we can only hope.

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Got to agree, every time I get behind an HD I get treated to the obnoxious racket as well as the stench of unburned hydrocarbons.

 

Maybe the future will also see fewer motor homes clogging the roads due to lack of interest by millennials, we can only hope.

 

They take a perfectly running stock bike and turn it into an asphyxiation device. They had a rally here during bike week from Arrowhead HD to Scottsdale with one of the SOA characters leading the charge. It was 10 miles long. I started in the back and got within a mile of the front...I thought I was going to pass out from the polluting exhaust. I have to wonder if those unburnt HC cause ring wear.

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Got to agree, every time I get behind an HD I get treated to the obnoxious racket as well as the stench of unburned hydrocarbons.

 

Maybe the future will also see fewer motor homes clogging the roads due to lack of interest by millennials, we can only hope.

 

They take a perfectly running stock bike and turn it into an asphyxiation device. They had a rally here during bike week from Arrowhead HD to Scottsdale with one of the SOA characters leading the charge. It was 10 miles long. I started in the back and got within a mile of the front...I thought I was going to pass out from the polluting exhaust. I have to wonder if those unburnt HC cause ring wear.

 

For sure loud exhaust and unburnt the hydrocarbons have me putting a lot of hawgs in my rear view mirror. The Milwaukee 8 motor may mitigate the dirty motor issue, because the older motors came through so anemic to meet sound & emmisions regs it was enevitable that Hawg riders were paying for mods to get the motor to perform well. The new motors deliver the expected performance as delivered. The loud bike thing is another question as this is more of a cruiser culture mind set.

 

One thing I"ll give kudos to millennials is they are on average more of a we instead of me culture and if they should get the Hawg bug they may not want to be obnoxiously loud when riding. I still think price is a big barrier. These folks came of age in a crap economy and those with a high income potential also have significant debt in front of them to pay off student loans and maybe buy a house... Toys are down the list and the new round of the latest mobile phone will have them cracking into that piggy bank before they get close to the down stroke needed to buy a high dollar motorcycle

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I was talking with my son this morning about this issue. He pointed out that many younger people would rather car share than own one.

 

Like the recreational sailing industry, participants are aging out.

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I was talking with my son this morning about this issue. He pointed out that many younger people would rather car share than own one.

 

I think we finally have a generation that cares less about it's personal freedom than the previous one. That, is sad....

 

Shawn

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I was talking with my son this morning about this issue. He pointed out that many younger people would rather car share than own one.

 

Like the recreational sailing industry, participants are aging out.

 

I have a 21 year old nephew and an 18 year old niece ... neither of whom even bothered to get their drivers licenses. That would have been inconceivable to me as a kid!

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Dennis Andress
I was talking with my son this morning about this issue. He pointed out that many younger people would rather car share than own one.

 

I think we finally have a generation that cares less about it's personal freedom than the previous one. That, is sad....

 

Shawn

 

Shawn, I think you hit nail on the head.

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I was talking with my son this morning about this issue. He pointed out that many younger people would rather car share than own one.

 

I think we finally have a generation that cares less about it's personal freedom than the previous one. That, is sad....

 

Shawn

 

Shawn, I think you hit nail on the head.

 

Doesn't seem sad to me but admirably sensible -- owning and maintaining a car is their personal choice based on need, where they live and if/how they commute. Some don't particularly like driving and there's less peer pressure to own cool wheels compared to previous generations.

 

Some kids can't wait to drive; some kids don't care much. I don't think that defines or reflects a generational care about personal freedom.

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Dennis Andress
I was talking with my son this morning about this issue. He pointed out that many younger people would rather car share than own one.

 

I think we finally have a generation that cares less about it's personal freedom than the previous one. That, is sad....

 

Shawn

 

Shawn, I think you hit nail on the head.

 

Doesn't seem sad to me but admirably sensible -- owning and maintaining a car is their personal choice based on need, where they live and if/how they commute. Some don't particularly like driving and there's less peer pressure to own cool wheels compared to previous generations.

 

Some kids can't wait to drive; some kids don't care much. I don't think that defines or reflects a generational care about personal freedom.

 

Not owning a car in an urban area is perfectly sensible.

Not caring about personal freedom is sad.

 

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